Mu gihe Perezida Félix Antoine Tshisekedi Tshilombo yegereje imyaka umunani ku butegetsi bwa Repubulika Iharanira Demokarasi ya Congo (RDC), kimwe mu bibazo bikomeye byakomeje kumugora kurusha ibindi ni intambara ikomeje kubera mu burasirazuba bw’icyo gihugu. Nubwo yashoye amafaranga menshi mu gisirikare, akinjiza abafatanyabikorwa benshi b’abanyamahanga ndetse agashyiraho ingamba zitandukanye za politiki na gisirikare, umutwe wa M23, ubu ubarizwa mu ihuriro rya AFC/M23, hamwe na MRDP-Twirwaneho, bakomeje guhangana n’ubutegetsi bwe.

Iyo urebye uko ibintu byagiye bikurikirana kuva mu mwaka wa 2021 ndetse na mbere yaho, hagaragara ko Kinshasa yagerageje amayeri hafi ya yose ashoboka mu rugamba rwa gisirikare, urwa dipolomasi ndetse n’urw’itangazamakuru, ariko kugeza ubu ikaba itarabasha kugera ku ntsinzi ihamye yari yizeye.

Nyuma y’imyaka hafi icyenda M23 isa n’iyacitse intege nyuma y’intambara yo mu 2013, mu mpera za 2021 no mu ntangiriro za 2022 yongeye kugaragara ku rugamba ifite imbaraga nshya. Mu gihe ubutegetsi bwa Kinshasa bwari bwizeye ko uwo mutwe utakibasha kwiyubaka, M23 yatangiye gufata ibice bitandukanye bya Rutshuru mbere yo kwagura ibikorwa byayo mu bice byinshi bya Kivu y’Amajyaruguru.

Muri icyo gihe kandi, muri Kivu y’Amajyepfo, MRDP-Twirwaneho na yo yakomeje kwagura ibikorwa byayo, cyane cyane mu misozi ya Minembwe, Bijombo, Mikenge n’ahandi, aho yagaragazaga ko iharanira uburenganzira bw’abaturage bavuga ko bamaze imyaka myinshi bahura n’ihohoterwa n’ivangura.

Ibi byashyize Kinshasa mu kibazo gikomeye kurusha ibindi byose igihugu cyari cyahuye na byo kuva Tshisekedi yajya ku butegetsi.

Amayeri Yose Tshisekedi Yagerageje Mu Rugamba

Gushingira ku Mbaraga za FARDC

Mu ntangiriro, Perezida Tshisekedi yizeye ko FARDC ishobora guhagarika M23 binyuze mu bikorwa bya gisirikare bisanzwe. Ingengo y’imari ya gisirikare yarazamutse cyane, hatangizwa gahunda yo kugura intwaro nshya, indege z’intambara, drones ndetse n’ibikoresho by’ikoranabuhanga.

Ariko ikibazo gikomeye cyakomeje kuba ruswa, imiyoborere mibi, kutizerana hagati y’abayobozi ndetse n’ibibazo by’imyitozo n’imikorere y’ingabo.

Nubwo amafaranga yashowemo yari menshi, umusaruro wabaye muto kurusha uko byari byitezwe.

Kwifashisha Wazalendo

Nyuma yo kubona ko FARDC yonyine itari guhangana neza n’imitwe iyirwanya, Kinshasa yahisemo gushyigikira imitwe yitwaje intwaro yiswe Wazalendo.

Iyi mitwe yari igizwe n’amatsinda menshi ya Mai-Mai n’andi mashyirahamwe y’abarwanyi bo mu bice bitandukanye.

Intego yari ukugota AFC/M23 no kuyibuza kwisanzura mu bice igenzura.

Ariko uko imyaka yagiye ishira, Wazalendo na bo bagiye bashinjwa ibikorwa byinshi by’ihohoterwa, ubusahuzi ndetse no kwica abaturage, ibintu byatumye bamwe mu baturage batangira kubafata nk’ikibazo aho kubafata nk’umuti.

Kwinjiza Ingabo z’Amahanga

Tshisekedi yongeye gukoresha indi nzira yo gushaka ubufasha bw’amahanga.

Ingabo z’u Burundi zoherejwe mu bice byinshi bya Kivu y’Amajyepfo n’iy’Amajyaruguru.

Ingabo za SADC zirimo iza Afurika y’Epfo, Tanzania na Malawi na zo zinjira muri uru rugamba.

Mbere yaho kandi hari MONUSCO n’ingabo za EAC.

Nyamara nubwo izo ngabo zari zifite ubushobozi bukomeye, ntizigeze zibasha guhindura cyane isura y’urugamba.

Ahubwo hari aho AFC/M23 yagiye ifata ibice bishya nubwo yari ihanganye n’izo mbaraga zose zifatanyije.

Intambara ya Dipolomasi

Mu rwego rwa dipolomasi, Perezida Tshisekedi yakoresheje imbaraga nyinshi ashaka gushyira igitutu ku bihugu byashinjwaga gufasha M23.

Yakoresheje inama z’Umuryango wa Afurika Yunze Ubumwe, SADC, EAC, Umuryango w’Abibumbye ndetse n’ibihugu bikomeye byo mu Burengerazuba bw’Isi.

Nubwo hari ibihano n’amatangazo byagiye bitangwa ku bantu bamwe, ibyo ntibyahagaritse imbaraga za AFC/M23 ku rugamba.

Intambara y’Itangazamakuru

Kimwe mu bindi byaranze ubutegetsi bwa Tshisekedi ni ugukoresha cyane itangazamakuru n’imbuga nkoranyambaga.

Hari igihe Kinshasa yagerageje kwerekana AFC/M23 nk’ikibazo cy’umutekano gusa, ariko uko imyaka yagiye ishira, iri huriro ryatangiye kwiyerekana nk’umutwe ufite n’intego za politiki.

Ibi byatumye urugamba rw’amagambo n’amakuru ruba urundi rwego rw’intambara.

Intambara yo Kunaniza Umwanzi

Mu myaka ibiri ishize, Kinshasa isa n’iyinjiye mu cyiciro gishya cyiswe “War of Attrition” cyangwa intambara yo kunaniza umwanzi.

Intego si ugufata umujyi uyu munsi cyangwa ejo, ahubwo ni ugutuma AFC/M23 na Twirwaneho bahora bakoresha abantu, amasasu, ibikoresho n’amafaranga menshi kugeza igihe bananiwe.

Ni gahunda isaba igihe kirekire kandi ikunze kugira ingaruka zikomeye ku bukungu bw’igihugu.

Kuki AFC/M23 na Twirwaneho Bakomeje Kudatsindwa?

Ababikurikiranira hafi benshi bemeza ko kimwe mu bibazo bikomeye Kinshasa ihura na byo ari uko abo bahanganye na bo batakiri imitwe mito ya gisirikare gusa.

AFC/M23 yubatse imiyoborere yayo mu bice igenzura, ishyiraho inzego z’ubuyobozi, ikusanya imisoro kandi igenzura inzira nyinshi z’ubucuruzi.

Ku ruhande rwa MRDP-Twirwaneho, ibikorwa byayo byakomeje kubaka urusobe rw’imikoranire n’abaturage bo mu bice bimwe na bimwe byo mu misozi ya Minembwe na Hauts Plateaux, bituma ibasha gukomeza kubaho nubwo ihura n’ibitero bya buri munsi.

Ikindi ni uko impande zose zagiye ziga uburyo bushya bw’intambara, zirimo gukoresha drones, ubutasi bw’ikoranabuhanga ndetse n’uburyo bwo kwimuka vuba ku rugamba.

Ese Intambara Ishobora Kumara Indi Myaka Myinshi?

Iyo urebye aho ibintu bigeze muri uyu mwaka wa 2026, biragoye kubona uruhande rushobora gutsinda urundi mu buryo bwihuse.

Kinshasa ifite umutungo munini w’igihugu n’ubufasha mpuzamahanga.

AFC/M23 na MRDP-Twirwaneho na bo bafite ubushobozi bwo gukomeza guhangana n’igitutu cya gisirikare no gukomeza kugenzura ibice bifatika.

Ni yo mpamvu ababikurikiranira hafi benshi babona ko, niba nta gisubizo cya politiki kibonetse, intambara yo mu burasirazuba bwa RDC ishobora gukomeza imyaka myinshi iri imbere.

Nyuma y’imyaka irenga itanu y’intambara ikomeye, Perezida Félix Tshisekedi amaze kugerageza amayeri menshi arimo ibikorwa bya gisirikare, gukoresha Wazalendo, kwinjiza ingabo z’amahanga, dipolomasi, intambara y’itangazamakuru ndetse n’ingamba zo kunaniza umwanzi.

Nyamara kugeza ubu, AFC/M23 na MRDP-Twirwaneho bakomeje kuba imbaraga zikomeye ku rugamba.

Ibi byatumye ikibazo cy’umutekano mu burasirazuba bwa RDC kiba kimwe mu bibazo bikomeye kandi bigoye kurusha ibindi igihugu cyahuye na byo mu myaka ya vuba.

Mu gihe ibiganiro bya politiki bikomeje kugenda biguru ntege, abaturage bo muri Kivu y’Amajyaruguru, Kivu y’Amajyepfo na Hauts Plateaux bakomeje kuba abishyura ikiguzi gikomeye cy’iyi ntambara. Ubuhunzi, ubukene, inzara, ubwicanyi n’ihungabana bikomeje kuba ishusho nyakuri y’ubuzima bw’abaturage bo muri aka karere kamaze imyaka myinshi karangwa n’intambara idashakira umuti urambye.