Abahagarariye Guverinoma ya Repubulika Iharanira Demokarasi ya Congo (RDC) n’ihuriro AFC/M23 bongeye gutera indi ntambwe mu nzira y’ibiganiro bigamije guhagarika intambara imaze igihe mu burasirazuba bw’iki gihugu.

Mu biganiro byabereye mu Busuwisi kuva ku wa 17 kugeza ku wa 21 Kanama 2026, impande zombi zasesenguye aho ishyirwa mu bikorwa ry’Urwego rwa Doha rigeze, zemeranya uburyo bwo gukurikirana intambwe imaze guterwa no gukemura ibibazo bishobora kuvuka mu gushyira mu bikorwa ibyo bumvikanyeho.

Iyi ntambwe ije nyuma y’uko RDC na AFC/M23 basinye Doha Framework for a Comprehensive Peace Agreement ku wa 15 Ugushyingo 2025, yari igamije gushyiraho urufatiro rw’amahoro yuzuye hagati y’impande zombi.

Ariko ikibazo gikomeye ubu si ukumenya niba impande zombi zishobora gusinya inyandiko y’amahoro. Ikibazo ni ukumenya niba ibyo zemeranyaho bishobora kuva ku mpapuro bigashyirwa mu bikorwa.

Intambwe nshya: kuva ku masezerano ajya ku kuyagenzura

Kimwe mu by’ingenzi byumvikanyweho ni ugushyiraho uburyo bwo gukurikirana ishyirwa mu bikorwa ry’inshingano n’imyanzuro bikubiye mu Masezerano ya Doha.

Hanatewe intambwe mu gutuma EJVM+, ari uburyo bwagutse bwo kugenzura no gukurikirana ibijyanye n’umutekano, butangira gukora neza.

Hashyizweho ubunyamabanga bwabwo, ndetse ku wa 20 Kanama hakorwa ubutumwa bwo kureba uko ibintu bihagaze, bwafashijwe mu by’ubwikorezi n’ibikoresho na MONUSCO.

Ibi byabaye mu rwego rwo gutegura ubutumwa bwa mbere bwo kugenzura iyubahirizwa ry’agahenge, buteganyijwe ku wa 24 Kanama i Minembwe.

Impande zombi kandi zemeranyije ko hakenewe uburyo bumwe kandi bwizewe bwo gutanga amakuru ku ihohoterwa cyangwa kurenga ku gahenge.

Aha ni ho hari imwe mu nkingi zikomeye z’iyi nzira nshya.

Kuko mu ntambara yo mu burasirazuba bwa RDC, ikibazo ntabwo ari ukubura amagambo y’amasezerano gusa.

Ikibazo cyagiye kiba ni ukumenya uwarenze ku gahenge, uko yabikoze, n’uwemera ibyo byagaragajwe n’abagenzuzi.

Niba EJVM+ izashobora gukora igenzura ryizewe kandi raporo zayo zikemerwa n’impande zombi, bishobora gufasha kugabanya imvugo yo gushinjanya no gutuma amakuru ajyanye n’ihohoterwa agira ishingiro rihuriweho.

Ariko ese ibi birahagije?

Ntabwo byaba bihagije kuvuga ko amahoro agezweho kubera gusa ko hashyizweho uburyo bwo kugenzura.

Kugenzura agahenge ni intambwe imwe.

Gukomeza kubahiriza agahenge, gukemura impamvu zatumye intambara itangira no gushyira mu bikorwa ingingo zikomeye z’amasezerano ni ikindi kibazo.

Ni na yo mpamvu iyi ntambwe nshya ikwiye kurebwa nk’uburyo bwo gukora ngo amasezerano ashobore gushyirwa mu bikorwa, aho kuyifata nk’ikimenyetso cy’uko ikibazo cyamaze gukemuka.

Hari impamvu zo kugira icyizere

Hari ibintu bitandukanye bishobora gutuma umuntu avuga ko iyi nzira ifite amahirwe yo gutera imbere.

Icya mbere ni uko ubu atari RDC na AFC/M23 gusa bari mu nzira y’ibiganiro. Qatar, Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika, Togo nk’umuhuza wa AU, u Busuwisi ndetse na Komisiyo y’Umuryango wa Afurika Yunze Ubumwe byose bifite uruhare mu gushyigikira inzira ya Doha.

Icya kabiri ni uko gahunda yo gukurikirana agahenge iri kugeragezwa mu buryo bufatika. Kuba EJVM+ yarakoze ubutumwa bwo kureba uko ibintu bihagaze mbere y’ubutumwa bwo kugenzura agahenge i Minembwe, bitanga ikimenyetso cy’uko hari igikorwa kiri gukorwa, atari inyandiko gusa.

Icya gatatu ni uko impande zombi zakoze roadmap, igaragaza ibyiciro n’ingengabihe y’ibiganiro bizakomeza.

Ibi bishobora gutuma inzira y’amahoro igira umurongo uhamye kurusha ibiganiro bidafite gahunda isobanutse.

Ariko hari ikibazo gikomeye: “roadmap” si garanti yo gushyira mu bikorwa

Aha ni ho hakwiye kwitabwaho cyane.

Impande zombi ubwazo zasobanuye ko uko protocole zizaganirwaho bidahita bisobanura uko zizashyirwa mu bikorwa.

Ibi bivuze ko kuba hari gahunda y’ibiganiro n’ingengabihe yayo bidakwiye gufatwa nk’igihe ntarengwa buri ngingo igomba kuba yamaze gushyirwa mu bikorwa.

Ku ruhande rumwe, ibi bishobora kuba byiza kuko bituma impande zombi zigira umwanya wo kuganira ku bibazo bikomeye zitihutishwa n’igihe.

Ariko ku rundi ruhande, bishobora kuba intandaro yo gutinza ishyirwa mu bikorwa.

Ni ukuvuga ko ikibazo kizakomeza kuba iki:

Ese ibiganiro bizahinduka ibikorwa ryari?

Ni iki cyatuma iyi nshuro iba itandukanye n’izindi?

Ni iki cyatuma iyi nshuro iba itandukanye n’izindi?

Amateka y’ibiganiro by’amahoro mu burasirazuba bwa RDC atuma abantu bagomba kwitonda mbere yo kwemeza ko intambara iri hafi kurangira.

Mu gihe cyashize, habaye amasezerano, imishyikirano, agahenge ndetse n’uburyo bwo kugenzura, ariko ikibazo cyongera kugaruka igihe impande zombi zaburaga ubwumvikane ku ishyirwa mu bikorwa.

Ni yo mpamvu kuri iyi nshuro igipimo nyacyo cy’ubutsinzi kitazaba umubare w’amasezerano yasinywe, ahubwo kizaba ibikorwa bizakurikira amasezerano.

Niba agahenge kazubahirizwa, niba amakuru y’ihohoterwa azajya akurikiranwa mu buryo bwizewe, niba impande zombi zizemera imyanzuro y’abagenzuzi kandi niba ingingo zikomeye za Doha zizatangira gushyirwa mu bikorwa, bizaba ikimenyetso ko inzira iri kugenda neza.

Ariko niba imirwano ikomeza, impande zombi zigakomeza gushinjanya kurenga ku gahenge, cyangwa ibiganiro bikomeza gusubikwa, icyizere cy’iyi nzira gishobora kugabanuka.

Minembwe ni yo ishobora gutanga igisubizo cya mbere

Ubutumwa bwo kugenzura iyubahirizwa ry’agahenge buteganyijwe i Minembwe ku wa 24 Kanama bushobora kuba kimwe mu bizagerageza ubushobozi bw’iyi gahunda nshya.

Kuko niba abagenzuzi bashoboye kugera ku bibuga birebwa, gukusanya amakuru no gutanga raporo impande zombi zikayemera, bizaba intambwe ikomeye.

Ariko niba igenzura rihura n’imbogamizi, impande zombi zikanga kwakira imyanzuro yaryo cyangwa hakabaho gukomeza imirwano, bizongera kwibutsa ko kubaka uburyo bwo gukurikirana amasezerano bidahagije; hakenewe ubushake bwa politiki bwo kuyubahiriza.

Hari n’ikindi kibazo: impamvu nyirizina z’intambara

Nubwo agahenge ari ingenzi, ntigahagije ngo ikibazo cy’intambara kirangire.

Amaherezo, ibiganiro bigomba kugera ku bibazo by’ingenzi byatumye amakimbirane akomeza, birimo umutekano, imitwe yitwaje intwaro, ihungabana ry’abaturage, kugaruka kw’abavuye mu byabo, imiyoborere n’uburyo bwo kongera kubaka icyizere hagati y’impande zihanganye.

Ni yo mpamvu Doha izageragezwa cyane igihe ibiganiro bizava ku ngingo zoroheje bikagera ku ngingo zifite inyungu zikomeye kuri buri ruhande.

Aha ni ho hazagaragara niba ubushake bwo kugera ku mahoro ari ubwa politiki nyakuri cyangwa niba impande zombi zikiri kure y’umwanzuro.

Bigaragara ko amahirwe ahari, ariko ikizamini ni ishyirwa mu bikorwa

Ibyemeranyijweho hagati ya RDC na AFC/M23 ntibikwiye kuvugwa ko bidashoboka, kuko hari ibimenyetso by’uko hari ibikorwa bifatika biri gutangira, cyane cyane mu bijyanye no kugenzura agahenge no gushyiraho roadmap y’ibiganiro.

Ariko kandi ntibikwiye gufatwa nk’aho ikibazo cyamaze gukemuka.

Icyo iyi ntambwe itanga ni amahirwe mashya yo kugerageza gushyira mu bikorwa ibyo impande zombi zasinye.

Ku bw’ibyo, ikibazo gikomeye ubu si:

“RDC na AFC/M23 bazongera gusinya amasezerano?”

Ahubwo ni:

“Bazubahiriza ibyo bamaze gusinya?”

Kandi igisubizo kizatangira kugaragara mu bikorwa byo ku butaka, cyane cyane mu kubahiriza agahenge, mu kwemera igenzura ryigenga no mu gushyira mu bikorwa ingingo z’amasezerano aho kuzisigira mu biganiro bidashira.

Doha ishobora kuba intangiriro y’amahoro arambye. Ariko ishobora no kuba indi ntambwe mu ruhererekane rw’amasezerano meza atinda kugera ku baturage. Icyemezo kizafatwa n’ibikorwa, ntabwo kizafatwa n’amagambo ari mu nyandiko.