Mu gihe isi yari yizeye ko ibiganiro bya dipolomasi bishobora kugabanya ubushyamirane mu Burasirazuba bwa Repubulika Iharanira Demokarasi ya Congo, intambara hagati ya AFC/M23 na Leta ya Congo yakomeje gufata indi ntera.
Uyu munsi, ikibazo ntikikiri icy’umutekano gusa, ahubwo kiri guhindura politiki n’imiterere y’ubutegetsi mu karere kose k’Ibiyaga Bigari.
Mu mezi ashize, umutwe wa AFC/M23 wakomeje kwagura ibice ugenzura muri Kivu y’Amajyaruguru n’iy’Epfo, ibintu byatumye benshi batangira kwibaza niba Kinshasa igifite ubushobozi bwo kugarura ituze binyuze mu mbaraga za gisirikare gusa.
AFC/M23 yahinduye isura y’urugamba
Mu myaka yashize, M23 yari izwi nk’umutwe w’inyeshyamba usanzwe urwanya Leta ya Congo. Ariko kuva yishyize hamwe na AFC (Alliance Fleuve Congo), ibintu byahindutse cyane.
Uyu mutwe watangiye gukora nk’igisirikare gifite:
ubuyobozi bunoze,
stratégie ihamye,
ndetse n’ubushobozi bwo kugenzura ibice bifite akamaro mu rwego rwa gisirikare n’ubukungu.
Abasesenguzi bavuga ko AFC/M23 itakiri umutwe ushaka gusa gufata agace runaka, ahubwo isa n’ifite intego yo kuba imbaraga za politiki zishobora guhatira Kinshasa kwemera ibiganiro cyangwa impinduka zikomeye mu miyoborere y’igihugu.
Kuki FARDC ikomeje kugorwa?
Nubwo Leta ya Perezida Félix Tshisekedi yashoye imbaraga nyinshi muri uru rugamba, harimo gukoresha FARDC, Wazalendo, ingabo za SADC ndetse n’inkunga mpuzamahanga, kugeza ubu AFC/M23 yakomeje kugaragaza ubushobozi bwo kwisuganya no gukora ibitero bifite gahunda.
Impamvu nyamukuru zikomeje kuvugwa harimo:Ikibazo cya ruswa mu gisirikare,
kutizerana hagati y’imitwe bafatanyije,
coordination nke ku rugamba,ndetse n’ikibazo cy’imibereho y’abasirikare.
Hari n’abavuga ko FARDC ifite ikibazo cyo kurwana intambara igezweho mu bice bya Kivu birimo imisozi n’amashyamba byinshi, aho umutwe ufite mobilité n’ubumenyi bw’akarere ushobora kugira advantage.
Ese AFC/M23 iri imbere ku rugamba?
Mu buryo bwa gisirikare, hari ibimenyetso byinshi byerekana ko AFC/M23 iri gukoresha stratégie ikomeye kurusha FARDC mu bice byinshi.
Uyu mutwe:
ufata imihanda y’ingenzi mbere y’uko FARDC yisuganya,
ukagabanya uburyo bwo gutanga ubufasha ku ngabo za Leta,
ndetse ugakoresha uburyo bw’intambara bwihuse kandi bugora ababurwanya.
Ikindi gikomeje gutera impungenge Kinshasa ni uko AFC/M23 iri no kugerageza kwiyerekana nk’imbaraga za politiki zishobora kugira ijambo mu miyoborere y’ejo hazaza mu Burasirazuba bwa Congo.
RDC ishinja bimwe mu bihugu byo mu karere kuyibuza amahoro
Nk’uko byakomeje kuvugwa mu myaka ishize, Leta ya Congo ikomeje gushinja u Rwanda gufasha M23, ibintu Kigali yakomeje guhakana, ivuga ko ikibazo nyamukuru ari umutekano muke uterwa n’umutwe wa FDLR ukorera muri Congo.
Hagati aho, imiryango irimo:
Southern African Development Community (SADC),
East African Community (EAC),
na United Nations (UN)
yakomeje kugerageza gushaka ibisubizo bya dipolomasi, ariko kugeza ubu ibiganiro byinshi ntibiratanga umusaruro ugaragara.
Abasesenguzi bamwe bavuga ko igihe ikibazo kidakemuwe vuba, hashobora kuvuka intambara nini irimo ibihugu byinshi byo mu karere.
Ese intambara ishobora kurangira vuba?
Mu by’ukuri, ibintu byinshi byerekana ko nta ruhande ruri hafi gutsinda burundu.
Nubwo Kinshasa ifite:
ubwinshi bw’ingabo,
inkunga mpuzamahanga,
n’ububasha bwa Leta,
AFC/M23 nayo ifite:
organisation ikomeye,
motivation y’abarwanyi,
ndetse n’ubuyobozi bugaragara nk’ubuhamye ku rugamba.
Ibi bituma benshi batekereza ko:
Intambara ishobora kumara igihe kirekire,
cyangwa impande zombi zikazarangiza zemeye ibiganiro bya politiki.
Umwanzuro
Umutekano mu Burasirazuba bwa DRC ugeze mu rwego rukomeye cyane.
AFC/M23 yerekanye ko ifite ubushobozi bwo gukomeza guhangana na Leta ya Congo igihe kirekire, mu gihe Kinshasa nayo ikomeje gushaka uburyo bwo kudatakaza ibice byinshi.
Ikibazo gikomeye gisigaye ni ukumenya niba:Intambara izakomeza kuba ndende,ibiganiro bya politiki bizashoboka,
cyangwa akarere kose kazisanga kinjiye mu ntambara yagutse kurushaho.
